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Organizing Inlelligence for Counlerinsurgency

EFFECTIVE, ACCURATE, AND TIMEL Y intelligence is essential to conducting any form of warfare, including counterinsurgency operations, beca use the ultimate success or failure of the mission depends on the effectiveness of the intelligence efforto The function of intelligence in counterinsurgency is to facilitate an understanding of the populace, the host nation, the operational environment, and the insurgents so that commanders may address the issues driving the insurgency.

Insurgencies, however, are notoriously difficult to evaluateo The organization of the standard military intelligence system, developed for major theater warfare rather than counterinsurgency, compounds the difficultyo Intelligence systems and personnel must adapt to the challenges of a counterinsurgency environment to provide commanders the intelligence they requireo This is a "best practice" in counterinsurgency, without which counterinsurgency efforts willlikely fail.

(September-October 20060 MILlTARY REVIEW p.24)

"(...) counterinsurgency efforts will likely fail"o What does the word "Iikely" mean in this sentence of the text?